Leagues POSTS

Could England miss out on top seed pot again?

Published by Ian John on November 30, 2009

Welcome to the first in a series of articles this week leading up to the FIFA World Cup Finals draw to be held in Cape Town, South Africa on Friday evening at 7pm local time. During the draw the 32 qualifiers will be split into four groups of eight, depending largely on their FIFA ranking and past performances in World Cup competitions and then the teams will be drawn into one of the eight groups for the finals. Although FIFA will have special dispensation to wiggle things around so that they can annoy who they like using their own seeding system. The 32 qualifiers will be seeded 1-32 by a special FIFA panel and the panel will announce these seedings on 2nd December, two days before the draw. This will give the big teams who miss out on a top seeding position, plenty of time to complain bitterly about how unfair it all is.

This may well be pertinent to England. There’s been a blase, quiet acceptance that England will be a top seed for some time now, but Portugal’s recent improved form has seen them push into the top spots of the FIFA rankings and this has pushed England to 9th position. Would FIFA really put England in the second pot? They certainly could if they take into account current rankings and past World Cup performances (Portugal knocked us in 2006 remember). However if qualification form is used then England stand a chance of slipping in ahead of Portugal and France who both had to qualify via the play-offs.

However, I’m going to gaze into my crystal ball and name the four groups of teams that will be seeded thus;

Group 1 : Brazil, Spain, Italy, Germany, Argentina, Holland, Portugal, France
Group 2 : England, Greece, Cameroon, United States, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Chile, Serbia,
Group 3 : Uruguay, Denmark, Australia, Ghana, Nigeria, Japan, Paraguay, Switzerland
Group 4 : North Korea, South Korea, New Zealand, Honduras, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Algeria

Suddenly the need for being in the top seeded group becomes patently clear. A group consisting of Greece, Paraguay and Honduras is infinitely more preferable to facing three matches against Brazil, Denmark and South Africa on home soil.

Much will depend on how FIFA decide to organise their 32 seedings. We know that past world cup performance and FIFA rankings will be used. This means that the likes of Brazil, Italy, Germany, Spain and probably Argentina are certainties for the top seed group. One of the remaining three places will go to Holland who had a perfect qualification, have good recent world cup history and who sit high in the rankings. This leaves, France, Portugal and England fighting for two spots. England may well have impressed the most in qualifying but are ranked lower than both France and Portugal and also have a poorer recent World Cup finals showing than either team (England reached the quarter finals in 2006, France the final and Portugal the semi finals). If FIFA do not weigh qualification performance, where England excelled, against past World Cup performance and rankings, there is a real danger England will be in the second pot.

And as a result, qualifying for the second phase becomes a great deal more difficult.

So it may be worth keeping an ear out for FIFA’s announcement on 2nd December because you can bet that the population of either France, Portugal or England is not going to be awfully pleased at FIFA’s final decision and I know where my money is, on who FIFA care less about upsetting. Especially since Sepp Blatter introduced “seeding” into the European World Cup play offs at the very last minute, with the sole intention of easing Portugal and France’s passage to the finals.

Who says TV revenue doesn’t play a role in FIFA affairs?